1.4 The policy

According to the IPCC, "Stabilization at any of the concentration levels studied (350-750 ppmv) is only possible if emissions are eventually reduced to well below 1990 levels" (Houghton et al. 1995: 22). The key sources of the greenhouse gases are energy use, transport and land-use; all three provide services to humanity that are needed to promote economic growth. Factor four proponents argue that the North needs to double its wealth while halving its resource use in order to make space for the developmental needs of the South (cf. von Weizsäcker et al. 1997). Southern documents talk of the need for modernizing consumption and production patterns in countries, much of which has been adopted in Agenda 21 and other Commission for Sustainable Development documents. The scientists at the Second World Climate Conference (1989) called for developing countries to avoid making the mistakes of the developed countries and to use "leap-frog" technologies to travel to modern times.

Clearly, these proposals call for considerable political will as well as research and development in all countries. The developing countries need to be seriously interested in learning from past mistakes and developing alternative definitions for sustainable development. However, some might not be in a position to make such changes. This calls for the mechanisms of capacity building, technology transfer and financial assistance.

The international community has taken cognisance of this and has adopted a convention (see Section 2.2) and a protocol (see Section 2.3) to deal with the issue of climate change. From a scientific perspective, the decision to adopt emission-related commitments under the Kyoto Protocol is a key decision in the right direction, but falls short of what is needed. As Bert Bolin (1998: 330-331) states: "The inertia of the climate change system was not appreciated fully by the delegates in Kyoto. It therefore seems likely that another international effort will be required well before 2010 to consider whether further measures are warranted." The reduction trends that arise from the Kyoto Protocol are consistent with a stabilization of CO2 emissions concentrations at 550 parts per million volume. Even at this level, it is expected that there will be significant ecosystem damage, 60-350 million more people will be at risk of hunger, there will be a significant loss of life and a 50 cm increase in the sea level with all the attendant impacts.